Trump Posts & Context — an observational co-occurrence timeline

What this is, and what it is not

• Observational co-occurrence, not causation. Things appearing close together in time are not evidence that one caused the other. This tool measures no cause, intent, or psychology, and is not a measure of anyone's "state of mind".
• The Fox ↔ Trump relationship is a feedback loop. Web coverage may follow his posts as easily as precede them, or both may follow a third event. Direction of influence cannot be inferred from timing alone.
• “Fox News coverage (web)” counts WEB coverage, not TV airtime. This track measures the daily volume of foxnews.com web coverage mentioning each keyword (GDELT DOC 2.0 “Volume Intensity”) — not what was spoken on air. The earlier TV-caption source remains gated at 2024-10-10 and is not used here; this is a separate web proxy.
• The court track is context, not a claim. It marks RECAP dockets in which Donald Trump is a named party (CourtListener, anonymous), placed at each docket's filing date. Many are official-capacity suits naming the President. Court dates are date-only, so this lane is excluded from the epoch analysis below; it is display/context only.
• Scheduled economic releases are a curated calendar. The econ lane marks when CPI, the Employment Situation, PPI, GDP and the FOMC statement were released, at their fixed Eastern times (DST-aware). They are shown as context; their placement asserts nothing causal.
• The epoch analysis tests temporal association only. Its window and metric are pre-registered and fixed; it reports a permutation p-value per event type. Several types are tested (multiple comparisons), and small samples mean low power — so a null or inconclusive result is the expected, honest outcome, never proof of a cause or reaction. See the section below.
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• All timestamps are UTC (ISO-8601). The axis and every tooltip below are shown in UTC. Eastern-time sources (markets, Fox) were converted with daylight-saving handled correctly.
• One deliberate exception: the posting-rhythm punchcard alone buckets hour-of-day in US Eastern (America/New_York, DST-aware), because time-of-day is only interpretable in local time. Every other view and all tooltips remain UTC.